In recent years, the concept of the carbon budget has become important not only as a metric to define global climate mitigation goals, but also as an indicator to broaden ambition and strengthen the fulfillment of these goals. The carbon budget is the maximum cumulative amount of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions over a period, to limit the increase in the average temperature of the earth within a certain range.

This study presents a methodology developed by Mexico’s Climate Initiative (ICM) with the support of the project “Enhancing the Coherence of Climate and Energy Policies in Mexico” (CONECC) implemented by GIZ. This methodology seeks to estimate the electricity sector and Mexico’s carbon budget, in order to contribute as a country to the goal of limiting the global average temperature increase below 2 °C (and considerations for a 1.5-°C scenario), established in the Paris Agreement.

According to the study, Mexico’s carbon budget from 2019 to 2100 is 22.2 GtCO2e, which means that if the country continues at the same rate of emissions, its carbon budget would be depleted by 2040. In the case of the electricity sector, the available carbon budget is 3.9 GtCO2e until 2100. These results strengthen the need for climate goals with greater ambition.

The study also demonstrates the feasibility of complying with the electricity sector carbon budget if a series of assumptions that lead to the convergence of climate and energy policies are considered, including a participation of more than 50 percent of renewable energy in electricity generation, accompanied by energy efficiency measures in the final consumption sectors.

For more information, please contact: Jonas.russbild@giz.de